speaking

Trumpetology

Consider this:

• The toilet roll was invented in response to sanitation ceramics, resulting from 19th century sewage developments, triggered by a cholera epidemic, whose social effects generated public health legislation, that established pathology labs, able to function due to tissue-staining techniques, that used aniline dyes, discovered during a search for artificial quinine, in coal-tar that was a by-product of the manufacture of gaslight, that illuminated early workers' evening classes, in factories spinning cotton from America, processed by Eli Whitney's gin, after he developed interchangeable musket parts, that made possible the manufacture of machine tools, for production lines that introduced continuous process techniques, that one day would make toilet rolls.

Source: The Axemaker's Gift, Burke and Ornstein

Similarly ...

• We rely more and more on technical experts to answer our questions about the world.
• It is difficult for an expert to master more than 1 or 2 subjects.
• Of necessity, therefore, most of the answers we get are fragmented and incomplete

Therefore ...

• Maybe it's time to find a way to integrate all of the pieces.

The premise

500 years ago, most people believed the earth to be flat. There was no other way to think about it - then. No one even considered the point. The earth seemed flat - our perceptions reinforced our belief and we became trapped in a self-sealing system of beliefs.

In like measure, the world view we have today is rooted in the successes of 19th century physics, mathematics, biology and engineering.

The implicit suggestion of this world view is that the world is predictable, that if only:

• we had more data
• we asked more questions
• we were smarter

we could control or fix our world.

Most of the tools we have inherited are not suited to dealing with discontinuities.

The premise of this talk is that it is now time to build another tool kit, one that allows the world to be what it is - essentially discontinuous - so that we can get more comfortable with that awkward and unpredictable fact.

Trumpetology is one such tool.

the talk

Trumpetology is the process of conceiving of competing, contradictory future world views.

This presentation focuses on how you can hold these contradictions in your mind and derisk the actions that you take.

It emphasizes that you cannot expect experts to know your business the way that you do. Just as no one can bleed for you, no one can do your thinking for you (although they will take your money just the same).

Most managers, certainly senior managers, are expected to plan for the future. Given that the future is becoming more unpredictable and chaotic, how can they be expected to come up with achievable plans, fund them and lead their people to action?

Cliff Saunders will outline some ways for you and your people to think differently about your world. He will help you open your minds to many more possibilities by using techniques he refers to as Trumpetology.

Dr. Saunders will illustrate that even though all you have in life is the best answer at the moment, you can improvise your way into the future, and maybe have some fun too.

the take-aways

You will be offered flexible error correcting methods of dealing with the future.

With your colleagues, you will be guided through the ten-step process of tracing your own prediction charts using Trumpetology.

You will learn how to:

• develop the issue you want to derisk
• identify and assemble the people most pertinent to a Trumpetology exercise
• generate relevant, interesting trends
• find the most important and unpredictable trends
• develop a "scenario generating engine"
• build contradictory yet plausible business scenarios
• discover how to "care less" about any world outcome
• set up monitoring/triggering metrics to indicate the likely emergence of a particular world
• turn the whole process into a practical, actionable business road map

AND you will have a great time!

About the Speaker

Cliff Saunders is a renowned speaker, facilitator, teacher, author and consultant to Fortune 500 corporations worldwide.

He holds a BSc in Engineering, a MSc in Applied Psychology, and a Ph.D in Cybernetics.

His life's work has been dedicated to helping large organizations solve messy, complex, intractable problems.

Today, he focuses on helping people feel and function better in their every day personal and professional lives.

For more information on this or other topics, or to book Dr. Saunders to speak, facilitate or teach for your organization in this or other areas of expertise, please contact us.